Joe Maddon has long theorized about pitching counts, and not hurting pitcher's arms, and has his beliefs that pitchers need to be under a pitch count. That being said, when asked, the main two names that come to mind for damaged young arms are Kerry Wood, and Mark Prior both formerly Cubs. The list of hundreds of young pitchers the past 20 years, that have come and gone in baseball, doesn't seem to include to many of them leaving for arm injuries. Wood and Prior are always who get referred to, but who else really has been injured severely, and was it really because of a pitch count?
The Rays use the theory that after 105 pitches the "possibility" of a pitcher injuring his arm becomes greater. Well, sure it does, and after stealing 40 bases, a runners legs could get injured, or after 30 home runs, Longoria could pull a hamstring, or injure his shoulder. These "numbers" are created by mathematicians, not by true baseball men. Ask Jim Leyland, a World Series winner as a manager, ask Hall of Fame Pitchers Bob Gibson, Bob Feller, Nolan Ryan, future HOF's Randy Johnson, and Tom Glavine.
Nolan Ryan currently is the President of the Texas Rangers, and he steadfastly disagrees with Maddon's philosophies. You'd think that World Series winning managers, and Hall of fame pitchers that disagree with these theories would probably have better insight than a 30 year career minor league player and baseball coach, recently turned manager. Under Ryan, the Rangers pitchers are not being babied any longer, and in his first year, they are actually in first place at this point. Instead of babying these players, they are taught how to be durable and pitch effectively, not be pulled out after a certain pitch count that is extremely low. Don't you think these pitchers can look at the scoreboard and see how many pitches they have thrown, and know they are getting close to coming out, so they actually overthrow a pitch or tow, or a few, so they try to not get removed? That alone brings the real possibility of being injured, more so than a few extra pitches under normal game situations.
Joe Maddon is slowly becoming the laughing stock manager of baseball. Ask fans from any team, and they will tell you how annoying these theories sound to them, and how they all laugh at the Maddon way. Ask baseball men, and the majority of them will disagree with Maddon's philosophies. The ones that do agree, are the handful of teams that believe in low pitch counts, and babying their players too, but can you name one team that does this and is successful?
The Rays are successful despite Maddon's tinkering and loyalty to the wrong players. These pitchers clearly don't agree with the Maddon pitch count, but are forced to walk the company line in fear of being demoted to the minors, or in looking like the outcast. The past week we have seen Irsinghausen call out Maddon for his use of the bullpen, other relievers including JP Howell showing their frustration over not having a set role in the bullpen, we have seen Price give up 3 runs total in 3 outings, yet get yanked because of a phantom pitch count, so that he has not gotten a win in 2 of those starts. The past 2 games Matt Garza has pitched, he has been pulled while struggling, but had still battled his way through the games to have a lead in 1, and only trail 3-2 in tonight's game. Yet the almighty pitch count prevails instead of letting him get the last out of an inning.
The worst comments of all were from yesterday's game, when Maddon is quoted as saying "I didn't see it as getting any better,'' said Maddon, who was booed when he came out to pull Price. "I'm more concerned about the future of the Tampa Bay Rays and also David Price. I'm even concerned about his future wife and his kids. So I want to make sure we take care of him properly." Are you kidding? He is so worried about Price's wife and kids, he pulled him for a pitch count. Maddon altered his rotation this past 2 weeks, to give them"rest", and instead of it helping, it caused a loss in the Shields game, it has messed up Garza for 2 starts in a row, and it forced Niemann to get out of sync on 6 days rest, when he had just thrown a complete game 2 hitter the previous game.
Proof is in the results, Maddon's ways are hurting this team more than helping them, and what pitcher wants to pitch on a team that continues to yank him. When these guys have contract years, it'll be disaster for the Rays, as you will see them leave for teams that have managers that actually allow pitchers to pitch, and try to win games, instead of trying not to injure a pitcher by babying him and overall stunting their growth and development.
We write it, but it isn't just our opinion, ask the Hall of Famers, the baseball executives around the league, and then ask the fans. Especially the older fans that understand baseball and the way it really is supposed to be played. Maddon will continue to preach that the game has changed. No it hasn't, it only changes when people like Maddon try to alter it to caress their ego, rather than go with what is established and already works. Change is good when it's for the better, but not good when it makes the game go backwards. Click here for an updated JUN 15TH article regarding Nolan Ryan and Stats guru and current Red Sox senior advisor Bill James's opinion and insight on the "pitch count".
Click here for the full article on Joe Maddon's comments about David Price's wife and kids from the SP Times
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Added June 15th-Bill James, Nolan Ryan disagree with the pitch count"
12 comments:
Wow, this site is dumber than 10 dogs. You want to subject a rotation full of good young pitchers to excess risk, because?
And you don't even realize that the "proven ways' of "days of yore" were created during eras were games were 2 hours long and it took signifcantly fewer pitches to get through a lineup.
Pitch counts came around because pitchers had and have horrifying injury rates. They sure aren't perfect, but to ignore them is insane.
Joe Girardi ignored pitch counts when he managed a young rotation with the Marlins that looked on the verge of being very good. You should look up what happened to those guys before you dismiss pitch counts so easily.
All I'll say is that if you're going to create an inflammatory blog to spew angry words about Maddon or anyone else then you should at least let people know who you actually are instead of hiding behind a website and an anonymous internet persona.
Um, have you ever heard of paragraphs?
Not only was your rant drivel but it was unreadable drivel.
These comments are pathetic, especially yours ezrastiles. Pitch counts are what is killing pitchers. You obviously didn't watch Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, Jim Palmer, Bob Gibson, Roy Halladay and so on. There is ZERO evidence that pitch counts help young pitchers. In fact it may do more harm. Do some research my friend. You say pitchers didn't have to throw that many pitches to finish games in the days of yore? You my friend are very ignorant. Ask the Texas Rangers and Nolan Ryan about the pitch count nonsense. Since Nolan has taken over their pitching staff is arguably better than ours. He has instilled an attitude that a starting pitcher starts a game to finish it. I think he would know as he routinely threw well over 150 pitches a game in his 'early' years. I guarantee Mr. David Price, Matt Garza and others can't wait to get out of here so that can stop being babied.
"Pitch counts are what is killing pitchers. You obviously didn't watch Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, Jim Palmer, Bob Gibson, Roy Halladay and so on."
Tell that to Larry Dierker, Gary Nolan, Alex Fernandez, Steve Busby, Mark Fidrych, the starters for Oakland in 1980, and so on.
For every Hall of Famer, there are five potential aces who were burnt out because their managers worked them too hard at a young age.
By the way, according to baseball-reference.com, Texas starters average 99 pitches per game. Tampa starters? 97 pitches per game. Big deal.
Oh, one more thing. The Rays are allowing fewer runs per game than the Rangers are this season.
Keep going with your stats. All i know is i grew up with power pitchers and such. Of course there are going to be pitchers who throw their arms out. That happens whether their on a pitch count or not. Nolan Ryan just took over last summer and this summer he instilled his off season program. I bet you when Price and Garza get a chance to leave they will. Just like Edwin Jackson said, he is now able to do things he wasn't here. All i'm saying is babying players is not the way to go. How is a pitcher going to get better if he's not allowed to pitch out of stressful situtations. Just keep loving Mr Maddon. I don't but i still love the Rays.
OK, let's try to get beyond insults and get to truth. Nolan Ryan didn't throw 200 innings in the majors until his 6th major league season, the type of nice progression that pitch count advocates recommend for young pitchers to build strength and endurance.
Accurate pitch counts weren't tracked until 1988, when Nolan was 41 years old so you really don't know how many pitches he threw in his "early" years. Research has shown that pitchers threw less pitches per inning throughout most of baseball history because batters were less patient.
And pitchers like Ryan got to coast through weaker hitters more often without throwing their hardest. During Nolan's career league batters averaged .255/.321/.376/.696. This year the AL is averaging .264/.336/.424/.760 The typical AL lineup today is much tougher with much more power than the average lineup Nolan faced.
And you ignore the great Billy Martin experiment in Oakland that destroyed four great young arms, and the great Girardi experiment in Florida that looks to have have some pretty bad results of it's own.
The science on pitch counts is far from exact. It's commonly accepted that some pitchers have the conditioning and efficient mechanics that allow for much higher pitch counts (Lincecum for example). Even most pitch count advocates would probably agree that if you can monitor a pitcher closely enough it's okay to push pitch counts until fatigue weakens mechanics. It's generally agreed injury risk increases substantially at that point. The question is whether any pitching coach can catch all signs of fatigue, before subjecting arms to excess stress.
The most important point to consider the cost/benefits of pushing pitch counts. If you are right, you get a 5-10 more pitches a game out of your starters when they are most tired, instead of from fresh relievers. If there is a gain at all, it's probably not substantial.
2009 AL BA/OBP/SLG/OPS against
Starting Pitching .269/.334/.430/.764
Relief Pitching .253/.336/.403/.738
It already looks like starters are kept in too long, as relievers are more effective in general, despite typically being less skillful than starters. So it's hard to imagine that keeping your starters in even longer has much of any net benefit in general. Certainly there will be times when the starter is still strong, and the bullpen is exhausted where managers should push the starter harder, but in general it looks like they don't go to relievers soon enough.
So the net gain of more pitchers from your young starters is at most very minor. But the cost of losing a talented young starter to injury is tremendous. Shields and Garza are giving Tampa seasons that are worth at least $10M each more than their salaries, losing a another year like that on Tampa's budget is essentially irreplacable.
If Nolan Ryan is able to up pitch counts next year after his full off season program is in place, and his staff doesn't suffer from a high injury rate in 2010 and 2011, then it would behoove the Rays to consider strongly whether they should mimick it. But right now there is too much to lose for what appears to be either no gain at all, or at most a minimal gain in performance.
Is this site tongue in cheek? I hope so.
http://www.joemaddonsucks.com/2009/06/nolan-ryan-bill-james-agree-todays.html
Here is the backup article you all seem to slam, let's see Nolan Ryan, Bill James, yep I think there opinion matters way more than a bunch of pitch count loyalists. Trying to slam Ryan shows ignorance. Twisting stats is easy, obviuosly those who weren't born until the 80's and never watched real baseball in the 60's and 70's and early 80's don't get the reasoning. For all these hall of fame pitchers that there is 5 burned out arms for, name them! Burned out arms, or garbage pitchers who didn't stay in baseball. Today you are considered good with a career era of over 5.00 like Andy Sonnanstine. In the 60's 70's that wasn't even allowed to stay in the league, so how is that burned out? Because they weren't good they got demoted and cut, but you call it burned out arms? There is a reason we only see a handful of 300 game winners, because there is only a handful of great pitchers, not because of injuries, but because mediocrity wasn't accepted in the real baseball world, but today it is accepted.
JMS isn't hidden at all, everyone that blogs here in this group is a season ticket holder, watches each game, home and away, posts daily on the heater and here, as well as twitter, yet when you criticize us, your profile is blank, so how about that? Interesting how tree huggers always throw stones for something they do...
This article sums it up real well. Agree pitch counts are killing the game. Nobdody said they should pitch 150 pitches, but 120 pitches would lead to more 8, 9 inning outings for startes, with minimal damage to the arm.
As far as Ryan and the 99 pitches per start so far, well his starters aren't near as good as the Rays, he is trying to stretch them out, and make them better. He just took over there and already is 2 pitches ahead of the Rays who have done this 4 years now.
David Price should be limited to maybe 110 pitches or so, but the rest, they can go 120 standing on their head if you let them develop into it, and stop pulling them so quickly. It's one thing to pull a pitcher early that isn't doing well, it's another to pull him when he is on top or doing well, because of 100 pitches, and then watch the bullpen choke it away.
Bullpens are made up of guys who can't start usually, their your mediocore pitchers, or sometimes good but only for 1-2 innings pitchers. Starters are starters for a reason, and JMS hit it on the head, in the older baseball world a guy with a 5.00 ERA wouldn't be in the league period.
You guys are nuts if you think that article supports JMS's case. First, Bill James says there isn't any evidence for the 100 pitch limit, but he also admits he doesn't know what the limit is. They give two great examples of potential hall of famers who flamed out after throwing an excess amount of pitches or innings (Fidrych and Busby).
Again, you can't argue against the key points. Today's bullpens are better than todays starters, so there is little reason to keep most starters in for a few extra pitches. Those extra pitches are certainly the highest risk pitches the starter will throw, so you need to show a significant gain from leaving them in.
But you can't. Every year, bullpens outpitch starters. Managers should probably go to the pen sooner, not later.
Again, the massive cost of losing a young pitcher to injury is far greater than any possible gain from having him pitch another half inning a start.
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